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Daniel Morris, Chief Market Strategist at BNP Paribas, notes that the Trump administration's aggressive approach has surprised many, leading to expectations of significant US economic growth but increased market volatility. While the impact of tariffs remains uncertain, he believes the Federal Reserve will maintain its independence. Morris also highlights the positive outlook for European equities despite political turbulence, emphasizing the need for structural reforms in response to US deregulation pressures. Gold remains a favored asset in their portfolios as a hedge against economic risks.
Fears of a trade dispute continue to impact investor sentiment as the U.S. implements punitive tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China, raising concerns over potential countermeasures. Key economic indicators this week include the ADP employment data and the ECB's interest rate decision, with Non-Farm Payrolls expected to show an increase of 153,000 jobs. ECB President Christine Lagarde will also address the public, adding to the week's market focus.
Silver prices are hovering around $32, influenced by tariff concerns and upcoming US labor market data. The US President has halted military aid to Ukraine, prompting potential countermeasures from affected countries, while key economic indicators are set to be released this week, including non-farm payrolls and a speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.
Gold prices are currently consolidating below $2,900 as the European Central Bank (ECB) prepares for a key interest rate decision, while attention turns to the upcoming US non-farm payrolls (NFP) data. Concerns over trade disputes have diminished, although risks remain amid potential tariffs on European goods. Economists predict the creation of 153,000 new jobs in the US, with the unemployment rate expected to hold steady at 4.0%.
March is pivotal for central banks, with the ECB, Fed, SNB, and Bank of England set to announce interest rate decisions. The Fed is expected to maintain rates amid economic uncertainties, while the ECB and SNB are likely to cut rates by 0.25%. The SNB faces pressure to act despite stable inflation, as inaction could lead to a stronger franc, impacting Swiss industry.
Asian share markets saw cautious gains as investors awaited the implementation of new tariffs, while Bitcoin surged 10% to $92,905 after being included in a proposed US strategic reserve of cryptocurrencies. Concerns over the US economy were heightened by soft data and impending tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, raising fears of a recession. The upcoming US payrolls report is critical, with expectations that weak results could prompt the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates multiple times this year.
Michael Hartnett of Bank of America warns that U.S. stocks are overvalued, suggesting a potential buying opportunity when market sentiment turns bearish. He highlights the importance of key support levels and expresses optimism about the Chinese stock market, predicting a shift from technology to broader consumption as retail sales accelerate. Hartnett also notes a significant decline in government trust, contributing to a bull market in gold, while global investor sentiment shifts towards risk despite limited buying power.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reported to Congress that the economy is strong, with GDP projected to grow by 2.5% in 2024, despite a robust labor market and easing inflation at 2.8%. UBS's Mark Haefele sees a favorable environment for U.S. equities, predicting 9% growth through 2025, while cautioning against risks from tariffs and geopolitical tensions in Europe, particularly regarding natural gas prices. Investors are advised to maintain a diversified approach, focusing on high-quality bonds and resilient equities amidst global uncertainties.
Market concerns are rising over potential tariffs and their impact on inflation in the U.S., which could hinder hopes for interest rate cuts. Despite this, the DAX index is reaching new all-time highs, driven by capital inflow from the U.S. and optimism about resolving the Ukraine conflict. However, the rapid price increase raises caution, as a drop below key trend lines could signal a correction, with the first target at 21,303 points.
US stock markets rose, buoyed by technology gains and easing inflation concerns, while the ASX 200 reached a record high above 8600, supported by a strong earnings season and expectations of an RBA interest rate cut. Key economic indicators showed US inflation rising, with jobless claims falling, while Australia saw improvements in consumer and business confidence. Upcoming key dates include the RBA interest rate decision and Japan's Q4 GDP release.
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